A simple way to find value in the betting market
Firstly, I didn’t make money by creating a magic formula. The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else. It came from a small error in how the odds were being set.
Understand the odds
This depends upon the popularity of the event, but in general, bookmaker odds will be more a reflection of what they expect the general public to play, rather than on the actual probabilities of either outcome. Of course, it’s not quite that simple, but in general, bookmakers will set their odds so as to attract betting on either side of the odds, so as to balance their liability and take their commission.
This leaves smart gamblers to find great value opportunities where the general public’s opinion is just plain wrong. It also means that great value can be found on events where there is expected to be greater interest than normal by the occasional or casual gambler, who let’s be honest, knows nothing or very little in terms of profitable betting strategy
Possess the ability to fall in love with the ugly duck
The longer we have been betting, the more we have come to fall in love with the team that nobody likes. In fact, we feel better about a potential bet the uglier it looks on paper. Sounds counter intuitive we know, but the less the general public likes a team, the more we like the look of them in terms of value. Especially a team that might have performed well over a long period but may have had a bad run of maybe 4 or 5 games. Just watch the general public jump off them, and watch their value rise.
Don’t dwell on the past or celebrate for too longDon’t let a recent losing run throw you off your game. Put it out of your mind and stay with your analysis and have faith that the wheel will turn. Similarly, don’t let a recent winning streak give you false courage and lead you to over extend yourself. Again, stay with your analysis and stick with your plan.Don’t hope for The Big ScoreMulti-bets. Just know when to bet them. And when not to. Sure they offer the promise of the big score, the big pay day, but unless you have done your analysis and have located true value, they are a terrible way to bet.
Have a long term sensibility
If you take your betting seriously, you need to think long term. Build your betting bankroll, steadily increase the amount you bet on each game, and soon enough you’ll find you’re making some decent pocket money on the side, and maybe, just maybe, if you stick with it long enough, you can make a living wage out of it.
Never forget: Betting, like any other form of serious investment, is a marathon, not a sprint. Accordingly it will take a while for your bankroll to grow. If you’re patient and successful however, the compound interest effect will be on your side. What will look like painfully slow growth initially will end up picking up a remarkable exponential dynamic.
You will have to deal with more swings, losing streaks, winning streaks, making the curve less smooth and requiring a greater number of bets. Nevertheless the general dynamic holds true – how far you can get with 5% value is quite amazing, and doesn’t even take all that long.
Start with a sensible betting bankrollIf you want to make money, you need to start with a betting bankroll capable of absorbing losses. If you’re going to bet in units, with an average bet of 1 unit, we would recommend a bankroll of at least 50 units. Minimum.
There’s no way around it: To find success in betting you need to put in the hard work. You will have to say goodbye to the idea of suddenly winning the lottery with a huge accumulator. Importantly, remember there are no so-called ‘safe bets’ and nothing is guaranteed in betting.